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Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

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Author Info

  • Gigerenzer, Gerd
  • Todd, Peter M.

    (both at the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research)

  • ABC Research Group,

    (Max Planck Institute for Human Development)

Abstract

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Oxford University Press in its series OUP Catalogue with number 9780195143812 and published in 2000.

ISBN: 9780195143812
Order: http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780195143812.do
Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780195143812

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Dudey & Peter Todd, 2001. "Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 195-215, May.
  2. Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage, 2002. "Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 29-71, February.
  3. Roberto Casarin & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2012. "Financial press and stock markets in times of crisis," Working Papers 2012_04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  4. Todd, Peter M. & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2003. "Bounding rationality to the world," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 143-165, April.
  5. Yaakov Kareev & Klaus Fiedler, 2004. "Does Decision Quality (Always) Increase with the Size of Information Samples? Some Vicissitudes in Applying the Law of Large Numbers," Discussion Paper Series dp347, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  6. Todd, Peter M., 2007. "How much information do we need?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1317-1332, March.
  7. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Haug, Espen Gaarder & Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2011. "Option traders use (very) sophisticated heuristics, never the Black-Scholes-Merton formula," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 97-106, February.
  9. Julian N. Marewski & Rudiger F. Pohl & Oliver Vitouch, 2011. "Recognition-based judgments and decisions: What we have learned (so far)," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(5), pages 359-380, July.
  10. Andersson, Patric & Ekman, Mattias & Edman, Jan, 2003. "Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2003:9, Stockholm School of Economics.

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