Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?
AbstractThis paper tests whether the differences in rankings between individual players are good predictors for Grand Slam tennis outcomes. We estimate separate probit models for men and women using Grand Slam tennis match data from 2005 to 2008. The explanatory variables are divided into three groups: a player's past performance, a player's physical characteristics, and match characteristics. We estimate three alternative probit models. In the first model, all of the explanatory variables are included, whereas in the other two specifications, either the player's physical characteristics or the player's past performances are not considered. The accuracies of the different models are evaluated both in-sample and out-of-sample by computing Brier scores and comparing the predicted probabilities with the actual outcomes from the Grand Slam tennis matches from 2005 to 2008 and from the 2009 Australian Open. In addition, using bootstrapping techniques, we also evaluate the out-of-sample Brier scores for the 2005-2008 data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Sports forecasting Probit models Prediction intervals Tennis Brier scores Bootstrapping;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
- Lebovic, James H. & Sigelman, Lee, 2001. "The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-120.
- Klaassen, Franc J. G. M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2003.
"Forecasting the winner of a tennis match,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 257-267, July.
- Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
- Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
- Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
- Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 1986. "Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(8), pages 1040-1060, August.
- Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
- Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
- David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.
- Abrevaya, Jason, 2002. "Ladder tournaments and underdogs: lessons from professional bowling," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 87-101, January.
- McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630, April.
- Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2012. "Evaluating professional tennis players’ career performance: A Data Envelopment Analysis approach," MPRA Paper 41516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stefan M. Herzog & Ralph Hertwig, 2011. "The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(1), pages 58-72, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.