Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries
AbstractThis paper relies on the 'institutional debt rule' implemented in Franc Zone countries to assess whether the structural vulnerability of these countries matter for their probability to enter into excessive indebtedness. This structural vulnerability is measured by retrospective 'Economic Vulnerability Index' (EVI) recently computed jointly by the United Nations and Guillaumont et al., (2011). We observe evidence that the impact of 'EVI' is non-linear with respect to the probability of these countries to engage into excessive indebtedness and that, this effect appears to be the same for the two monetary areas belonging to the CFA Franc Zone countries: a rise of EVI induces a higher probability of excessive debt and for higher EVI, this probability declines. Consequently, international development institutions such as the Bretton Woods should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations to these countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00749470.
Date of creation: 07 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00749470
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Structural Vulnerability; Public debt; unconditional logit model; linear probability model;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-17 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Tolga Tiryaki, 2008. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Changed the Likelihood of Excessive Deficits in the European Union?," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 65-83.
- John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
- Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009.
"Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements,"
Oxford Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
- Briguglio, Lino & Cordina, Gordon & Farrugia, Nadia & Vella, Stephanie, 2008. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Working Paper Series RP2008/55, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Gordon Cordina, 2004. "Economic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: Some Results From A Neo-Classical Growth Modelling Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 21-39, December.
- Joël CARIOLLE, 2011. "The Economic Vulnerability Index - 2010 Update," Working Papers I09, FERDI.
- Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
- Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal, 1994.
"Small Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-66, July.
- Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal, 1994. "Small sample bias in GMM estimation of covariance structures," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
- J. de Ree & E. Nillesen, 2006.
"Aiding violence or peace? : the impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
06-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
- de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
- Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
- Naude, Wim & Santos-Paulino, Amelia U. & McGillivray, Mark, 2009.
"Vulnerability in Developing Countries,"
Working Paper Series
rb02-08, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Naude, Wim & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Vulnerability in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series WIDER Angle September 200, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Naude, Wim & Santos-Paulino, Amelia U. & McGillivray, Mark, 2008. "Vulnerability in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Benno Ferrarini, 2009. "Policy, vulnerability and the new debt sustainability framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 895-914.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
- Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
- Greenidge, Kevin & Drakes, Lisa & Craigwell, Roland, 2010. "The external public debt in the Caribbean Community," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 418-431, May.
- Oral Williams & Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2007. "Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone," IMF Working Papers 07/232, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.