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Does Structural Economic Vulnerability Matter for Public Indebtedness in Developing Countries?

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  • Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

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    Abstract

    In this study, we examine the effect of structural economic vulnerability of developing countries on their public indebtedness. We perform our econometric analysis by relying on 96 developing countries over the period 1980-2008. The results suggest evidence of a "U-shaped" relationship between the structural vulnerability and the total public debt in developing countries. In Low-Income Countries (LICs), the build-up of the total public debt is particularly explained by structural vulnerability. Accordingly, international institutions should take into account such structural vulnerability when designing development policies, especially the ones related to debt sustainability in developing countries and particularly LICs.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00749469.

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    Date of creation: 07 Nov 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00749469

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00749469
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    Related research

    Keywords: Structural Vulnerability; Public debt; Fixed Effects;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1998. "Where Did all the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collapses," CEPR Discussion Papers 1789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Naude, Wim & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Vulnerability in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series WIDER Angle September 200, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
    6. Benno Ferrarini, 2009. "Policy, vulnerability and the new debt sustainability framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 895-914.
    7. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Working Papers id:2625, eSocialSciences.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    9. Greenidge, Kevin & Drakes, Lisa & Craigwell, Roland, 2010. "The external public debt in the Caribbean Community," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 418-431, May.
    10. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
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