Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ali Bayar
  • Bram Smeets
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated issues in recent years. However, much less has been contributed about their dynamics. Yet, the issue of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits is critical in the Economic and Monetary Union since the Stability and Growth Pact rules out deficits larger than 3 percent of GDP, unless countries face strictly defined unusual conditions. This paper provides a transition data analysis of the dynamics of public deficits. It shows the asymmetric role played by the economic determinants in these dynamics and estimates the evolution of the probability of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits for every individual member state of the European Union that signed the Maastricht Treaty, since 1970. It also reveals how the concurrence of some minor changes may produce a major switchover in public finance outcomes. Finally, it analyses the evolution over time of the probabilities that countries will enter or escape from the state of having excessive deficit, and hence the fragility of some countries even if they are now out of excessive deficits.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-07/cesifo1_wp2703.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2703.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2703

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: fiscal policy; Economic and Monetary Union; duration models;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Bertola, G. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Trigger Pointsand Budget Cuts ; Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," Papers 26-91, Tel Aviv.
    2. Marco Buti & Werner Rüger & Alessandro Turrini, 2009. "Is Lisbon Far from Maastricht? Trade-offs and Complementarities between Fiscal Discipline and Structural Reforms," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 55(1), pages 165-196, March.
    3. Ali Bayar, 2001. "Entry and exit dynamics of excessive deficits in the European Union," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13494, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Robert F. Westcott & C. John McDermott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 96/59, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," IMF Working Papers 96/52, International Monetary Fund.
    6. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    8. Jonas Fischer & Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2007. "101 Proposals to reform the Stability and Growth Pact. Why so many? A Survey," European Economy - Economic Papers 267, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. repec:fth:eeccco:96 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin Tiongson & Emanuele Baldacci, 2003. "What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?," IMF Working Papers 03/224, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union," European Economy Group Working Papers 18, European Economy Group.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 401-07, May.
    13. Marco BUTI & Daniele FRANCO & Hedwig ONGENA, 1997. "Budgeetary Policies during Recessions : Retrospective Application of the Stability and Growth Pact” to the Post-War Period," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1997041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995. "Restraining Yourself: The Implications of Fiscal Rules for Economic Stabilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 32-48, March.
    16. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    17. Philippine Cour & Eric Dubois & Selma Mahfouz & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1996. "The Cost of Fiscal Retrenchment Revisited: how Strong is the Evidence?," Working Papers 1996-16, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," IREA Working Papers 200921, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
    2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 290-317, 07.
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.