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Has the Stability and Growth Pact Changed the Likelihood of Excessive Deficits in the European Union?

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  • S. Tolga Tiryaki

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of excessive deficit spells in the European Union using transition data methods. Probabilities of transition between excessive and nonexcessive deficit states are estimated with time-varying macroeconomic covariates as explanatory variables. The quantitative effects of discretionary fiscal and monetary policies and cyclical factors on transition probabilities are disentangled so that we can account for what factors and by how much they contributed to certain member countries' breaching of the Pact. Another finding is that the Stability and Growth Pact seems to have reinforced fiscal discipline in most of the member countries.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Tolga Tiryaki, 2008. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Changed the Likelihood of Excessive Deficits in the European Union?," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 65-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:65-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    2. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers halshs-00749470, HAL.
    3. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00749470, HAL.
    4. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers 201237, CERDI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stability and Growth Pact; Excessive deficits; Duration analysis; Discrete hazard models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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