The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia
AbstractThis paper addresses the issue of both domestic and cross border systemic risk for 8 countries in Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). We use weekly data on individual bank stock prices from 2000 to 2005 to construct bank contagion measures based on the exponential weighted average correlations of the residuals of the market model. Our results show that average pair-wise correlations significantly differ among countries and that the probability that a specific shock extends to other banks is better predicted by asset risk indicators and market based risk measures, such as systematic risk, for cross country contagion. In contrast, for domestic contagion, liquidity risk indicators and bank opaqueness proxies perform better. Our findings suggest that whereas illiquidity, but not insolvency, is a major concern at the domestic level the opposite result holds for cross country contagion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00918555.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-unilim.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00918555
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Other versions of this item:
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008. "The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in Southeast Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(6), pages 1215-1242.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
- Hans Byström, 2003.
"The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons,"
Research Paper Series
93, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
- Byström, Hans, 2003. "The Market’s View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Working Papers 2003:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2003.
"The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 727-754, 05.
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 409, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gianni De NicolÃ³ & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
- Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004.
"Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline,"
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
- Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004.
"Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008.
"The Determinants of Bank Stock Returns' Co-Movements in East Asia,"
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2009. "The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1596-1601.
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2009. "The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia," Post-Print hal-00844920, HAL.
- Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010.
"Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion,"
International Review of Finance,
International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 209-240.
- Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2009. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," Discussion Paper 2009-008, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2009. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," Discussion Paper 2009-20, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.