The Market’s View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons
AbstractConsidering the increasingly international banks of today, the health ofa country’s banking sector is crucial not only to the country’s growthand prosperity but also to the rest of the international financialcommunity. Early warning signals of a banking sector in trouble or apending banking crisis would therefore be of great value to both banks,investors and banking regulators/supervisors world wide. Di.erentwarning signals exist and in this paper we investigate how the stockmarket can provide a market-based indicator of banking sector health.Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approach of estimating defaultprobabilities of individual banks using only their stock marketvaluations and volatilities. In this paper we apply an aggregatedversion of their approach to banking sectors around the world in bothdeveloped and emerging economies and study the market’s assessment ofthe probability of systemic banking crises in these countries over thelast decade, including the Asian Crisis 1997-98. In addition, weinvestigate whether there is a relationship between the probability ofbanking sector failure and institutional/structural features of theactual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of lawand order in a country is found to be significantly negatively relatedto the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit depositinsurance during periods of crisis. Keywords: banking sector; bankingcrisis; default probability; market discipline
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003:2.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 11 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2004, pages 419-438.
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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
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Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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banking sector; banking crisis; default probability; market discipline;
Other versions of this item:
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
- Hans Byström, 2003. "The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Research Paper Series 93, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-03-19 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-03-19 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2003-03-19 (Risk Management)
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