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Le modèle économique allemand est-il en crise ?

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  • François Gave

    (Centre d’analyse et de prévision du ministère des Affaires étrangères)

Abstract

Les interrogations sur l'avenir du "modèle" allemand se multiplient aujourd'hui, en Allemagne comme en Europe ou aux Etats-Unis, à la faveur de la récession prolongée des années quatre-vingt-dix. Ces interrogations, quelque temporaires qu'elles puissent être, méritent un examen attentif. Cela, tout d'abord, parce que les perspectives de l'emploi et de la croissance en Europe sont étroitement liées à la conjoncture allemande. Pour les pays du "noyau dur" en particulier, le rôle de "locomotive" joué par l'Allemagne est peu contestable [pour la France, voir Bruno, 1995]. Et le bon fonctionnement du SME suppose que l'ancre du système, à savoir l'Allemagne, adopte un comportement vertueux au plan macro-économique. Or, dans un contexte marqué par des difficultés sociales et économiques croissantes dans une bonne partie de l'Europe, le ralentissement économique allemand redouble d'importance. Surtout, nous ne pouvons demeurer indifférents aux vicissitudes d'un modèle qui sert de référence, voire de guide, à l'Union européenne. Le mode de fonctionnement du SME, l'établissement des critères de Maastricht et demain, sans doute, lorsque la monnaie unique aura été établie, les spécificités de la politique monétaire européenne, tout cela traduit dans une large mesure les vues allemandes en matière de politique économique ; et la raison de cet assujettissement aux conceptions allemandes tient dans le respect qu'inspirent les performances de l'économie allemande et le modèle social dont on pense, à tort ou à raison, qu'elles sont le reflet.

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  • François Gave, 1996. "Le modèle économique allemand est-il en crise ?," Post-Print hal-03579334, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03579334
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03579334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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