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Long-Term Mitigation Strategies and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves: A Case Study on Brazil

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  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    ()
    (World Bank - World Bank)

  • Christophe De Gouvello

    ()
    (World Bank - World Bank)

Abstract

Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. This paper investigates the ability of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision, reanalyzing a MAC curve built for Brazil by 2030. Using MAC curves to design short-term strategies without considering longer-term objectives would result to a suboptimal strategy. It would lead to under-invest in expensive, long-to-implement and large-potential options, such as clean transportation infrastructure. To avoid this, existing MAC curves can be enhanced with (1) new graphical representations; (2) improved data collection and reporting concerning the implementation speeds of emission-reduction measures; (3) a simple optimization tool that accounts for constraints on implementation speeds. Climate mitigation policies can be designed through a pragmatic combination of two approaches. A "synergy approach" that uses MAC curves to identify the cheapest mitigation options and maximize co-benefits. And an "urgency approach" which starts from a long-term objective (e.g., halving emissions by 2050) and works backward to identify actions that need to be implemented early. Sector-specific policies may then be used to ensure short-term targets are met without under-investing in the ambitious and long-to-implement abatement measures required to reach long-term targets.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00966821.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Publication status: Published, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, 2014, 6808
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00966821

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  1. Guy MEUNIER, 2013. "How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy," Working Papers 221662, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  2. Sanden, Bjorn A. & Azar, Christian, 2005. "Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets--economy wide versus technology specific approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1557-1576, August.
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  11. Grubb, Michael & Chapuis, Thierry & Duong, Minh Ha, 1995. "The economics of changing course : Implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 417-431.
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