The economics of changing course : Implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy
AbstractThis paper reviews evidence that energy technologies and systems adapt over time to accomodate external pressures: that technical innovation and systemic change in the energy sector is largely induced by need, and restrained by potentially large transitional costs. A simple integrated model of optimal greenhouse gas abatement over time is presented, in which the abatement cost depends on both fixed and transitional elements. It is shown that the optimal current response and long-run prospects differ radically between the classical economic case - in which the cost of a given cutback in emissions is fixed exogenously - and the adaptative case - in which the response is ultimately adaptative but heavily constrained by inertia (i.e. low fixed but high transitional costs). If energy systems are indeed to a large degree adaptive, the results demonstrate that as compared with the classical non-adaptive case: long-run stabilization of atmospheric CO2 may be optimal even with moderate damages from climate change; greater near-term abatement efforts are justified; and the cost of a given delay in response may be several times higher. Neglect of the issue of induced technical change and other adaptive responses may invalidate the policy implications drawn from most integrated assessment models developed to date.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 23 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4-5 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Grubb & Chapuis Thierry & Minh Ha-Duong, 1995. "The economics of changing course: implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy," Post-Print halshs-00002455, HAL.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Hoeller & Andrew Dean & Masahiro Hayafuji, 1992. "New Issues, New Results: The OECD's Second Survey of the Macroeconomic Costs of Reducing CO2 Emissions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 123, OECD Publishing.
- Anderson, Dennis & Bird, Catherine D, 1992. "Carbon Accumulations and Technical Progress--A Simulation Study of Costs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(1), pages 1-29, February.
- I.O. Walker & Franz Wirl, 1993. "Irreversible Price-Induced Efficiency Improvements: Theory and Empirical Application to Road Transportation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 183-205.
- Dermot Gately, 1993. "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 163-182.
- Ernst Berndt & Charles Kolstad & Jong-Kun Lee, 1993. "Measuring the Energy Efficiency and Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 33-56.
- Bovenberg, A.L. & Smulders, J.A., 1993.
"Environmental quality and pollution-saving technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model,"
1993-21, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Bovenberg, A.L. & Smulders, S., 1993. "Environmental Quality and Pollution-Saving Technological Change in Two- Sector Endogenous Growth Model," Papers 9321, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 1993. "Modelling long-run scenarios : Methodology lessons from a prospective study on a low CO2 intensive country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 309-326, March.
- Grubb, Michael, 1993. "Policy modelling for climate change : The missing models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 203-208, March.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.