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Expectation Formation and Social Influence

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  • Andreas Karpf

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    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

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    Abstract

    This article investigate the role of social influence for the expectation formation of economic agents. Using self-organizing Kohonen maps the repeated cross-section data set of the University of Michigan consumer survey is transformed into a pseudo panel allowing to monitor the expectation formation of cohorts with regard to business confidence over the whole available time span (January 1978 - June 2013). Subsequently the information theoretic concept of transfer entropy is used to reveal the role of social influence on the expectation formation as well as the underlying network structure. It is shown that social influence strongly depends on socio-demographic characteristics and also coincides with a high degree of connectivity. The social network estimated in this way follows a power-law and thus exhibits similar structure as networks observed in other contexts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00951588.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00951588

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00951588
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    Keywords: Social networks; expectations; household survey;

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    1. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Social Interactions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
    2. Burnkrant, Robert E & Cousineau, Alain, 1975. " Informational and Normative Social Influence in Buyer Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 206-15, December.
    3. Marie Cottrell & Patrice Gaubert, 2003. "Efficient estimators : the use of neural networks to construct pseudo panels," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00122817, HAL.
    4. Ron Wehrens & Lutgarde M. C. Buydens, . "Self- and Super-organizing Maps in R: The kohonen Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(i05).
    5. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
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