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The Economics of Natural Disasters in a Developing Country: The Case of Vietnam

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  • Ilan Noy

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Tam Bang Vu

    ()
    (College of Business and Economics, University of Hawaii at Hilo)

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Abstract

We examine impact of natural disasters on annual output and output growth in Vietnam. Using provincial data for primary and secondary industries in Vietnam, we employ the Blundell-Bond System GMM procedure to estimate the impact of disasters on the macro-economy. Results show that more lethal disasters result in lower output growth but that more costly disasters (in terms of destroyed capital) actually appear to boost the economy in the short-run. This result is consistent with the ‘creative destruction’ hypothesis that we outline. However we find that disasters have different macroeconomic impact in different geographical regions; and these differences are potentially related to the ability to generate transfers from the central government.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200903.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200903

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Keywords: Vietnam; natural disasters; growth; exogenous shocks;

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  1. Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-42, April.
  2. Halliday, Timothy, 2006. "Migration, Risk, and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 893-925, July.
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  4. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2009. "Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 273-294, 09.
  5. Ilan Noy & Aekkanush Nualsri, 2008. "Fiscal Storms: Public Spending and Revenues in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," Working Papers 200809, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  6. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Charlotte Benson & Edward J. Clay, 2004. "Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15025, August.
  8. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
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  17. Faruk Selcuk & Erinc Yeldan, 2001. "On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 483-488.
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  22. Ilan Noy & Aekkanush Nualsri, 2007. "What do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us about Growth Theories?," Working Papers 200728, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  23. Tam Bang Vu, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and endogenous growth in Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1165-1173.
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Cited by:
  1. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
  2. Kousky, Carolyn, 2012. "Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options," Discussion Papers dp-12-28, Resources For the Future.
  3. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  4. Uchida, Hirofumi & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Ono, Arito & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2013. "Natural Disaster and Natural Selection," Working Paper Series 25, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Vu, Tam Bang & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Regional Effects of Natural Disasters in China," Working Paper Series 2812, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  6. Vu, Tam Bang & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Natural disasters and firms in Vietnam," Working Paper Series 3063, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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