Do Natural Disasters Have Long-term Effects on Growth?
AbstractLarge natural disasters (LNDs) are ubiquitous phenomena with potentially large impacts on the infrastructure and population of countries and on their economic activity in general. Using a panel of 113 countries and 36 years of data, I examine the relationship between different measures of natural disaster impact and long-run economic growth. The sample is partitioned in two separate ways: according to the amount and type of disasters that countries have experienced and to the size of those disasters. For each partition, I present two sets of econometric estimations. The first regressions identify short-run and longer-lasting effects of LNDs. However, these first estimations do not distinguish between temporary but persistent effects and truly permanent ones. I thus estimate a structural model that allows me to identify permanent changes. The results of the first regressions show that for some of the groups of countries the disaster impact persists beyond the 2-5 years in which reconstruction and adaptation are expected to have an effect on the economy. However, the estimates using the structural model show that only for a very small number of countries which share a history of highly devastating natural disasters the negative effects are truly permanent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 006647.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2010-02-13 (Development)
- NEP-ENV-2010-02-13 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2010-02-13 (Financial Development & Growth)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2002.
"The Political Economy Of Government Responsiveness: Theory And Evidence From India,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1415-1451, November.
- Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2000. "The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Theory and Evidence from India," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 28, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Besley, Timothy J. & Burgess, Robin, 2001. "The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Theory and Evidence from India," CEPR Discussion Papers 2721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
- Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-42, April.
- Padli, Jaharudin & Habibullah, M.S., 2008. "Natural disaster death and socio-economic factors in selected Asian countries: A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 11921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Noy, Ilan, 2009.
"The macroeconomic consequences of disasters,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
- Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650, July.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2005.
"Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters,"
05-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
- Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
- Nejat Anbarci & Monica Escaleras & Charles A. Register, 2004.
"Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy,"
0415, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
- Christian R. Jaramillo H., 2007. "Natural disasters and growth: evidence using a wide panel of countries," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003927, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012.
"Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages,"
Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
- Loayza, Norman & Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2009. "Natural disasters and growth - going beyond the averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4980, The World Bank.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
- Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2005.
"Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3680, The World Bank.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Crespo Cuaresma & Hlouskova & Obersteiner, 2008. "Natural Disasters As Creative Destruction? Evidence From Developing Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 214-226, 04.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "Tropical Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 8119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Keen & Paul K. Freeman & Muthukumara Mani, 2003. "Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 03/197, International Monetary Fund.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Do Natural Disasters Have Long-term Effects on Growth?
by Ariel Goldring in Free Market Mojo on 2010-02-16 06:40:52
- Geethanjali Selvaretnam & Kannika Thampanishvong & David Ulph, . "Saving and Re-building Lives: an Analysis of the Determinants of Disaster Relief," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 1202, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
- Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009.
"The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey,"
200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Zeb Aurangzeb & Thanasis Stengos, 2012. "Economic Policies and the Impact of Natural Disasters on Economic Growth: A Threshold Regression Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 229-241.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "The Aftermath of Natural Disasters: Beyond Destruction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 25-35, 07.
- Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
- Kousky, Carolyn, 2012. "Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options," Discussion Papers dp-12-28, Resources For the Future.
- Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.