IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/guc/wpaper/50.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comparison of the Economics Impacts of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Imane Helmy

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

  • Christian Richter

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

  • Khalid Siddig

    (Faculty of Lif Sciences, Humboldt University in Berlin)

  • Hebatallah Ghoneim

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

Abstract

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to distinguish between the economy-wide impact of targeting conditional and unconditional cash transfer to Egyptian households following the full removal of subsidies. Analyzing the impact on the middle class whose vulnerability increased during the reform is another addition of this paper that makes an empirical contribution to the literature discussing the effectiveness of cash transfer compared to price subsidies. The STAGE model is calibrated on the Egyptian Social Accounting Matrix 2012/13. The results show that the removal of subsidies will have the largest negative impact on the consumption of middle class. Moreover, Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) maintains the best policy for mitigating the harmful effect of removing subsidies. It has a positive impact on the demand for labor in education and health sectors where the majority of labor is skilled males and semi-skilled females. Similarly, introducing CCT will boost production in health and education sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Imane Helmy & Christian Richter & Khalid Siddig & Hebatallah Ghoneim, 2018. "A Comparison of the Economics Impacts of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers in Egypt," Working Papers 50, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/wpapers/050Helmy_2018.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy M. Smeeding, 1977. "The Antipoverty Effectiveness of In-Kind Transfers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 12(3), pages 360-378.
    2. Dabalen,Andrew L. & Kilic,Talip & Wane,Waly & Dabalen,Andrew L. & Kilic,Talip & Wane,Waly, 2008. "Social transfers, labor supply and poverty reduction : the case of Albania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4783, The World Bank.
    3. Perrihan Al-Riffai & Julian Blohmke & Clemens Breisinger & Manfred Wiebelt, 2015. "Harnessing the Sun and Wind for Economic Development? An Economy-Wide Assessment for Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Sebastian Galiani & Paul J. Gertler & Sebastian Martinez & Rocio Titiunik, 2009. "Housing, Health, and Happiness," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 75-105, February.
    5. Khandker, Shahidur & Pitt, Mark & Fuwa, Nobuhiko, 2003. "Subsidy to Promote Girls' Secondary Education: The Female Stipend Program in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 23688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2005. "Hidden impact? Household saving in response to a poor-area development project," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(11-12), pages 2183-2204, December.
    7. Guilherme Lichand, 2010. "Decomposing the Effects of CCTs on Entrepreneurship," World Bank Publications - Reports 10143, The World Bank Group.
    8. Heinrich, Carolyn J., 2007. "Demand and Supply-Side Determinants of Conditional Cash Transfer Program Effectiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 121-143, January.
    9. Markus Loewe, 2000. "Social Security in Egypt: An Analysis and Agenda for Policy Reform," Working Papers 2024, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2000.
    10. Harold Alderman & Ruslan Yemtsov, 2014. "How Can Safety Nets Contribute to Economic Growth?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20.
    11. Lofgren, Hans & El-Said, Moataz, 2001. "Food subsidies in Egypt: reform options, distribution and welfare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 65-83, February.
    12. Ramadan, Racha & Thomas, Alban, 2011. "Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 638-646.
    13. Coady, David P. & Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2001. "A regional general equilibrium analysis of the welfare impact of cash transfers: An analysis of PROGRESA in Mexico," TMD discussion papers 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Lichand, Guilherme, 2010. "Decomposing the Effects of CCTs on Entrepreneurship," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 41, pages 1-4, November.
    15. David Piachaud, 2013. "Social protection, redistribution and economic growth," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 24-38, March.
    16. Ryan, James G. & Meng, Xin, 2004. "The contribution of IFPRI research and the impact of the Food for Education Program in Bangladesh on schooling outcomes and earnings," Impact assessments 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Lichand, Guilherme, 2010. "Decomposing the effects of CCTs on entrepreneurship," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5457, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gehrke, Esther & Hartwig, Renate, 2015. "How can public works programmes create sustainable employment?," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Helmy, Imane & Ghoneim, Hebatallah & Siddig, Khalid, 2019. "Implementing Cash Transfer Programmes in Egypt Differently: An Economic Impact Analysis," Conference papers 333055, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Marcel Peruffo & Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira, 2017. "The Long-Term Effects Of Conditional Cash Transfers On Child Labor And School Enrollment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 2008-2030, October.
    4. Victoria Menil, 2015. "Missed Opportunities in Global Health: Identifying New Strategies to Improve Mental Health in LMICs," Working Papers id:7987, eSocialSciences.
    5. Rafael P. Ribas, 2014. "Liquidity Constraints, Informal Financing, and Entrepreneurship: Direct and Indirect Effects of a Cash Transfer Programme," Working Papers 131, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    6. Lahiri, Bidisha & Daramola, Richard, 2023. "Effects of credit and labor constraints on microenterprises and the unintended impact of changes in household endowments: Use of threshold estimation to detect heterogeneity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 21-38.
    7. Saeed Solaymani, 2016. "Impacts of energy subsidy reform on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2707-2723, November.
    8. Borga, Liyousew G. & D’Ambrosio, Conchita, 2021. "Social protection and multidimensional poverty: Lessons from Ethiopia, India and Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Hatab, Assem Abu & Hess, Sebastian, 2021. ""Feed the Mouth, the Eye Ashamed": Have Food Prices Triggered Social Unrest in Egypt?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315082, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2597, December.
    11. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    13. Victor Gay, 2023. "Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility. A Verification and Reproduction of Fernández and Fogli (2009)," Post-Print hal-04194417, HAL.
    14. Erik Thorbecke, 2016. "Inequality and the Trade-off between Efficiency and Equity," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 460-464, July.
    15. Wagener, Andreas & Zenker, Juliane, 2018. "Decoupled but not neutral: The effects of stochastic transfers on investment and incomes in rural Thailand," TVSEP Working Papers wp-008, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Project TVSEP.
    16. Jacobus de Hoop & Furio C. Rosati, 2014. "Cash Transfers and Child Labor," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 202-234.
    17. Grösche, Peter, 2010. "Housing, energy cost, and the poor: Counteracting effects in Germany's housing allowance program," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 93-98, January.
    18. Jules Gazeaud & Victor Stephane, 2023. "Productive Workfare? Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 265-290, January.
    19. Christos Koutsampelas & Panos Tsakloglou, 2013. "The distribution of full income in Greece," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 311-330, March.
    20. Dinkelman, Taryn & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2015. "Migration, congestion externalities, and the evaluation of spatial investments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 189-202.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subsidies Reform; Conditional Cash Transfer; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr.Dina Yousri (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmguceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.