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Migration, congestion externalities, and the evaluation of spatial investments

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  • Dinkelman, Taryn
  • Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam

Abstract

The direct benefits of infrastructure in developing countries can be large, but if new infrastructure induces in-migration, congestion of other local publicly provided goods may offset the direct benefits. Using the example of rural household electrification in South Africa, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for migration when evaluating welfare gains of spatial programs. We also provide a practical approach to computing welfare gains that does not rely on land prices. We develop a location choice model that incorporates missing land markets and allows for congestion in local land. Using this model, we construct welfare bounds as a function of the income and population effects of the new electricity infrastructure. A novel prediction from the model is that migration elasticities and congestion effects are especially large when land markets are missing. We empirically estimate these welfare bounds for rural electrification in South Africa, and show that congestion externalities from program-induced migration reduced local welfare gains by about 40%.

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  • Dinkelman, Taryn & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2015. "Migration, congestion externalities, and the evaluation of spatial investments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 189-202.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:114:y:2015:i:c:p:189-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.12.009
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    2. Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2020. "Short- and long-run impacts of rural electrification: Evidence from the historical rollout of the U.S. power grid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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    4. Fried, Stephie & Lagakos, David, 2021. "Rural electrification, migration and structural transformation: Evidence from Ethiopia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Morales, Juan S., 2018. "The impact of internal displacement on destination communities: Evidence from the Colombian conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 132-150.
    6. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    7. Thiago Christiano Silva & Solange Maria Guerra & Marcus Vinicius B. Santos, 2022. "The role of externalities in fiscal efficiency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2827-2864, June.
    8. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Samuel Bazzi & Shanthi Nataraj & Amalavoyal V. Chari, 2017. "When Regional Policies Fail An Evaluation of Indonesia's Integrated Economic Development Zones," Working Papers WR-1183, RAND Corporation.
    9. Steven Bond-Smith & Philip McCann & Les Oxley, 2018. "A regional model of endogenous growth without scale assumptions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 5-35, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rural infrastructure; Migration; Congestion; Welfare; Program evaluation; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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