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Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives

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Author Info
Charles Wyplosz () (IUHEI, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva)

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Abstract

Debt sustainability is an essential attribute of good macroeconomic policies but its precise definition is elusive and its assessment is even more challenging. The IMF has developed a sophisticated approach but it must be recognized that, because the future is unknown, any debt sustainability assessment is only valid within the bounds of the underlying guesses. There is no support for the view that added complexity allows for more precise assessments. As a consequence, policy conclusions drawn from debts sustainability exercises must be considered with care. Sacrificing growth – in the short and even in the long run – to imprecisely known risks can be very costly.

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File URL: http://hei.unige.ch/sections/ec/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP03-2007.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series HEI Working Papers with number 03-2007.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 19 Oct 2005
Date of revision: 30 Jan 2006
Publication status: Forthcoming in book not yet determined
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp03-2007

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Related research
Keywords: International Economics; Exchange Rates; External debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Marcos Chamon & Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pascal Towbin, 2008. "Current Account Adjustment and Financial Integration," HEI Working Papers 11-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
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