Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Local debt expansion... vulnerability reduction? An assessment for six crises-prone countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paloma Acevedo

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Alberola

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Carmen Broto

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In recent years, for most emerging markets, public debt has decreased and its composition has evolved toward domestic currency. This progress is remarkable in terms of reduced financial vulnerability, which has been underpinned by favourable financing conditions and related deepening of local debt markets. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability reduction —conveyed in the ratio of total debt to GDP— achieved for six selected emerging economies, focusing on the importance of exchange rate evolution relative to the proactive policies that fiscal authorities have implemented to reduce the external exposure of debt. We first disentangle both components in the current structure of debt to show that proactive debt management has been the dominant factor in the reduction of the forex debt share. We then perform a stress test within a debt sustainability analysis framework. The results show that proactive debt management policies have —somehow paradoxically— entailed a short-term cost, preventing a more dramatic reduction in the debt to GDP ratio, but this is more than compensated by the benefits in terms of financial vulnerability reduction in the face of financial turbulences, reducing simultaneously the probability of such contingency.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0733e.pdf
File Function: First version, October 2007
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0733.

as in new window
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0733

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.bde.es/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: external debt; local debt markets; financial crises; debt sustainability analysis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  5. Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2007. "Global financial integration, monetary policy and reserve accumulation. Assessing the limits in emerging economies," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0706, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Sovereign Debt: Indexation and Maturity," Research Department Publications 4459, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Serge Jeanneau & Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Domestic bond markets in Latin America: achievements and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Financial stability and local currency bond markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 28, March.
  2. Aitor Erce, 2008. "A structural model of sovereign debt issuance: assessing the role of financial factors," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0809, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Daniel, L., 2008. "Foreign investors’ participation in emerging market economies’ domestic bond markets," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 61-77, Summer.
  4. Isabel Argimón & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "The determinants of budget balances of the regional (Autonomous) governments," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0803, Banco de Espa�a.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0733. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.