Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

HIV/AIDS and labor markets in Tanzania

Contents:

Author Info

  • Arndt, Channing
  • Wobst, Peter

Abstract

We analyze the implications of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Tanzania for labor markets and human capital accumulation. Three analyses are undertaken. First, we examine the 2000/01 Labor Force Survey and compare it with the 1990/91 Labor Force Survey. Since these two surveys encompass a period where accumulated AIDS deaths increased dramatically, their comparison provides an opportunity to make inferences about the impact of HIV/AIDS over that period. Second, we study rates of human capital accumulation, proxied by educational attainment, for the period 1991 to 2000. While the most obvious impact of HIV/AIDS on human capital comes about through the deaths of skilled people, this might not be the greatest concern in terms of long run economic impact. In poor countries with low levels of human capital, implications for rates of human capital accumulation might be of greater concern. We estimate education transition matrices to assess human capital accumulation over the 1990s and assess the trends in transition probabilities and regional variations in these trends. Finally, we analyze the implications of skills upgrading using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania. We find that the age structure of the labor force is changing with 10-14 year olds and juveniles comprising a significantly larger share and prime age adults aged 20-35 a smaller share compared with 1990/91. The growth in the child and juvenile labor force is matched by a trend towards an increased tendency to exit primary school and an overall lower share of children aged 5-14 enrolled in primary school. We conclude that workforce experience and rates of human capital accumulation are declining with HIV/AIDS being a prime factor underlying these trends. The CGE analysis indicates that skills upgrading of the population has particularly large first order (segmented rural and urban labor markets) impacts on the agricultural sector since the large majority of the population is rural. If migration is permitted, the enhanced productivity of a more skilled rural labor force permits substantial growth in agricultural and non-agricultural output generating a development pattern similar to those advocated by Mellor (1976) and Adelman et al. (1989). Reduced rates of skills upgrading would slow these trends.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/tmdp102.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 102.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:102

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Phone: 202-862-5600
Fax: 202-467-4439
Email:
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: TMD ; HIV/AIDS Economic aspects ; Human capital ; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) ;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lundberg, Mattias & Over, Mead & Mujinja, Phare, 2000. "Sources of financial assistance for households suffering an adult death in Kagera, Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2508, The World Bank.
  2. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  3. Psacharopoulos, George, 1993. "Returns to investment in education : a global update," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1067, The World Bank.
  4. Karantininis, Kostas, 2001. "Information Based Estimators for the Non-Stationary Transition Probability Matrix: An Application to the Danish Pork Industry," Unit of Economics Working papers 24198, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Food and Resource Economic Institute.
  5. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  6. Hideo Akabayashi & George Psacharopoulos, 1999. "The trade-off between child labour and human capital formation: A Tanzanian case study," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 120-140.
  7. Government of the United Republic of Tanzania & World Bank, 2002. "Tanzania at the Turn of the Century : Background Papers and Statistics," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14054, October.
  8. Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
  9. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
  10. Jensen, Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "Agricultural Technology and Marketing Margins in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  12. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
  13. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  14. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
  15. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wobst, Peter & Arndt, Channing, 2003. "HIV/AIDS and Primary School Performance in Tanzania," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25870, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.