Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary

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Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary

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Jongeneel, Roel
Longworth, Natasha
Huettel, Silke

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics in the farm size distribution for The Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary. A (non-)stationary Markov model approach is used. The transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. The models are estimated using an information theoretical approach, including non-sample (prior) information. The models can be used to simulate the impact of alternative dairy policies on the dairy sector structure. For all countries there is an autonomous decline in farm numbers over time (implying increase in average farm size). This trend continues irrespective of the EU dairy policy type. For both Hungary and Poland the role of the subsistence sector is expected to substantially decrease over time.

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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24772.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24772

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Jongeneel, Roel & Polman, Nico & Slangen, Louis, 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24526, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
Jongeneel, R. & Slangen, L.H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 94th Seminar, April 9-10, 2005, Ashford, UK 24441, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
Amos Golan, Stephen J. Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1977. "Estimation of Time-Varying Markov Processes with Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 183-98, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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