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HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique

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Author Info
Arndt, Channing
Abstract

As in other countries in the southern Africa region, a human development catastrophe is unfolding in Mozambique. Recently released data estimate HIV prevalence rates amongst the adult population in the year 2000 at around 12% with substantial regional variation..... This paper is structured as follows. Section two discusses the implications of recently released HIV prevalence rates and provides more detail on the expected demographic impacts of the pandemic using available demographic projections. Section three reviews literature focusing on macroeconomic impacts. Section four formally analyzes implications for human capital accumulation. Section five presents the economy-wide modeling approach including critical assumptions and model scenarios. Section six discusses the major results. Section seven summarizes and section eight considers both reactive and preventive policy implications.....[The paper concludes that] the economic analysis and related policy implications provide strong support for adoption of both reactive and preventive policies. While the pandemic cannot be avoided, much can be done to reduce its harshness and duration. Some relatively broad policy options were also presented; however, as usual, the devils are in the details. Moving beyond these general policy ideas (both reactive and preventive) to real policy initiatives will require careful thought particularly with respect to issues of implementation.

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 88.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:88

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Keywords: Human capital ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Handa, Sudhanshu & Simler, Kenneth, 2000. "Quality or quantity?," FCND discussion papers 83, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Channing Arndt & Henning Tarp Jensen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Stabilization and structural adjustment in Mozambique: an appraisal," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 299-323.
  9. Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
  10. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426. [Downloadable!]
  12. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
  13. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  17. Krugman, Paul R., 2000. "Technology, trade and factor prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 51-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Jayne, T.S. & Weber, Michael & Chapoto, Anthony & Mazhangara, Edward & Bailey, Linda & Yoo, Kyeongwon & Yamano, Takashi & Mghenyi, Elliot, 2004. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Household Responses to Adult Mortality in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications For HIV/AIDS Mitigation And Rural Development Policies," Food Security III Papers 11345, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. D. Mather & H. Marrule & C. Donovan & M. Weber & A. Alage, 2004. "Analysis of Adult Mortality Within Rural Households in Mozambique and Implications for Policy," International Development Collaborative Working Papers MZ-MINAG-RR-58E, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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