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HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique

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  • Arndt, Channing

Abstract

As in other countries in the southern Africa region, a human development catastrophe is unfolding in Mozambique. Recently released data estimate HIV prevalence rates amongst the adult population in the year 2000 at around 12% with substantial regional variation..... This paper is structured as follows. Section two discusses the implications of recently released HIV prevalence rates and provides more detail on the expected demographic impacts of the pandemic using available demographic projections. Section three reviews literature focusing on macroeconomic impacts. Section four formally analyzes implications for human capital accumulation. Section five presents the economy-wide modeling approach including critical assumptions and model scenarios. Section six discusses the major results. Section seven summarizes and section eight considers both reactive and preventive policy implications.....[The paper concludes that] the economic analysis and related policy implications provide strong support for adoption of both reactive and preventive policies. While the pandemic cannot be avoided, much can be done to reduce its harshness and duration. Some relatively broad policy options were also presented; however, as usual, the devils are in the details. Moving beyond these general policy ideas (both reactive and preventive) to real policy initiatives will require careful thought particularly with respect to issues of implementation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 88.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:88

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Keywords: Human capital ;

References

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  1. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  2. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Technology, Trade, and Factor Prices," NBER Working Papers 5355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
  4. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  6. Thomas W. Hertel & Kyle Stiegert & Harry Vroomen, 1996. "Nitrogen-Land Substitution in Corn Production: A Reconciliation of Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 30-40.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, octubre-d.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, octubre-d.
  8. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
  9. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," TMD discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Channing Arndt & Henning Tarp Jensen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Stabilization and structural adjustment in Mozambique: an appraisal," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 299-323.
  11. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  12. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  13. Handa, Sudhanshu & Simler, Kenneth, 2000. "Quality or quantity?," FCND briefs 83, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  14. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  15. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  16. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June.
  17. Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
  18. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1996. "Saving and Investment: Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 87-117, February.
  19. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  20. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
  21. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  22. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  23. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Jayne, Thomas S. & Weber, Michael T. & Chapoto, Antony & Mazhangara, Edward & Bailey, Linda & Yoo, Kyeongwon & Yamano, Takashi & Mghenyi, Elliot W., 2004. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Household Responses to Adult Mortality in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications For HIV/AIDS Mitigation And Rural Development Policies," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54571, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  2. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Weber, Michael T. & de Marrule, Higino Francisco & Alage, Albertina, 2004. "Household Responses to Prime Age Adult Mortality in Rural Mozambique: Implications for HIV/AIDS Mitigation Efforts and Rural Economic Development Policies," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 56060, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  3. Channing Arndt & Sherman Robinson & Finn Tarp, 2006. "Trade Reform and Gender in Mozambique," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 32, pages 73-89.

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