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Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty in Yemen

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Author Info

  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Collion, Marie-Helen
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Rondot, Pierre

Abstract

Yemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country on the Arabian Peninsula with persistently high levels of poverty. The impacts of the food, fuel, and financial global crises are likely to further complicate preexisting conditions of internal conflicts, decreasing oil revenues, and governance failure. The latest official growth numbers date back to precrisis levels; new estimates are subject to much debate; and the current state of poverty in Yemen remains unclear. In this paper, a consistent economic framework is presented to help close this information gap and to better understand growth and poverty dynamics during crises. Results show that economic growth in Yemen accelerated during the food and fuel crises in 2008 because oil-driven growth dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis. However, this oil-driven growth has not been pro-poor; in fact, poverty in both rural and urban areas rises sharply in 2008. The financial crisis in 2009 impacts Yemen mainly through the drop in oil prices and a reduction in remittances and thereby sharply slows growth, including agricultural growth. This growth decline hits households hard and compounds the poverty effects of the food crisis. Model results indicate that poverty has increased to 42.8 percent in 2009, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2005–2006, when it was 34.8 percent. Poverty continues to be much higher in rural areas, where almost half of all people lived in poverty in 2009, compared with 29.9 percent in urban areas. These estimates can be considered conservative because we do not account for conflicts and natural disasters that recently hit the country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 955.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:955

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Keywords: Conflict; Development strategies; global economic crises; Growth; Poverty;

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References

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  1. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø & Xinshen Diao, 2001. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper Series 2202, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  2. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Schwab, Benjamin, 2013. "In the form of bread? A randomized comparison of cash and food transfers in Yemen," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150448, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Breisinger, Clemens & van Rheenen, Teunis & Ringler, Claudia & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Minot, Nicholas & Aragon, Catherine & Yu, Bingxin & Ecker, Olivier & Zhu, Tingju, 2010. "Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 985, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Ecker, Olivier & Breisinger, Clemens & McCool, Christen & Diao, Xinshen & Funes, Jose & You, Liangzhi & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Assessing food security in Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 982, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Clemens Breisinger & Olivier Ecker & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2012. "The Impact of the 2008 Hadramout Flash Flood in Yemen on Economic Performance and Nutrition: A Simulation Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1758, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Ecker, Olivier, 2011. "Petroleum subsidies in Yemen : leveraging reform for development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5577, The World Bank.

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