Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty in Yemen
AbstractYemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country on the Arabian Peninsula with persistently high levels of poverty. The impacts of the food, fuel, and financial global crises are likely to further complicate preexisting conditions of internal conflicts, decreasing oil revenues, and governance failure. The latest official growth numbers date back to precrisis levels; new estimates are subject to much debate; and the current state of poverty in Yemen remains unclear. In this paper, a consistent economic framework is presented to help close this information gap and to better understand growth and poverty dynamics during crises. Results show that economic growth in Yemen accelerated during the food and fuel crises in 2008 because oil-driven growth dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis. However, this oil-driven growth has not been pro-poor; in fact, poverty in both rural and urban areas rises sharply in 2008. The financial crisis in 2009 impacts Yemen mainly through the drop in oil prices and a reduction in remittances and thereby sharply slows growth, including agricultural growth. This growth decline hits households hard and compounds the poverty effects of the food crisis. Model results indicate that poverty has increased to 42.8 percent in 2009, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2005–2006, when it was 34.8 percent. Poverty continues to be much higher in rural areas, where almost half of all people lived in poverty in 2009, compared with 29.9 percent in urban areas. These estimates can be considered conservative because we do not account for conflicts and natural disasters that recently hit the country.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 955.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Conflict; Development strategies; global economic crises; Growth; Poverty;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2010-04-17 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2010-04-17 (Financial Development & Growth)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005.
"International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
- Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø & Xinshen Diao, 2001. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper Series 2202, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
- Schwab, Benjamin, 2013. "In the form of bread? A randomized comparison of cash and food transfers in Yemen," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150448, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Breisinger, Clemens & van Rheenen, Teunis & Ringler, Claudia & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Minot, Nicholas & Aragon, Catherine & Yu, Bingxin & Ecker, Olivier & Zhu, Tingju, 2010. "Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 985, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Clemens Breisinger & Olivier Ecker & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2012. "The Impact of the 2008 Hadramout Flash Flood in Yemen on Economic Performance and Nutrition: A Simulation Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1758, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Ecker, Olivier, 2011.
"Petroleum subsidies in Yemen : leveraging reform for development,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5577, The World Bank.
- Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Ecker, Olivier, 2011. "Petroleum subsidies in Yemen: Leveraging reform for development," IFPRI discussion papers 1071, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Ecker, Olivier & Breisinger, Clemens & McCool, Christen & Diao, Xinshen & Funes, Jose & You, Liangzhi & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Assessing food security in Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 982, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.