Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market
AbstractThe authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households that borrow on home equity lines of credit worsens along both observable and unobservable dimensions. This is an interesting example of a type of dynamic adverse selection that can worsen the risk characteristics of new lending, and suggests another avenue by which the precautionary demand for liquidity may affect borrowing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 11-13.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-02 (Banking)
- NEP-URE-2011-04-02 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
- Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000.
"Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
- Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "Credit Lines and Credit Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
- Astrid A. Dick & Andreas Lehnert, 2010.
"Personal Bankruptcy and Credit Market Competition,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 655-686, 04.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2005.
"Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 123-135.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.