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Is there Any Dependence Between Consumer Credit Line Utilization and Default Probability on a Term Loan? Evidence from Bank-Level Data

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  • Anne-Sophie Bergerès
  • Philippe d'Astous
  • Georges Dionne

Abstract

Whereas recent studies on revolving lines of credit suggest a positive relationship between exposure at default and default probability on the line, this paper considers the relationship between two financial instruments through the simultaneous analysis of credit line utilization and default probability on a personal loan. We model both financial instruments endogenously in a simultaneous equation system and find strong evidence of a positive relationship between the two instruments. Individuals in the default state use their credit line 59% more than those in the non-default state, and full utilization of the credit line increases the default probability on the loan by 46% when compared with non-utilization. Our results suggest that banks should manage both financial instruments simultaneously.

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File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2011/CIRPEE11-19.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 1119.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1119

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Related research

Keywords: Consumer finance; consumer risk management; credit line; term loan; default probability; ability to pay; endogeneity; simultaneous equations;

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  1. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & John C. Driscoll, 2004. "Loan commitments and private firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Shubhasis Dey, 2005. "Lines of Credit and Consumption Smoothing: The Choice between Credit Cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit," Working Papers 05-18, Bank of Canada.
  3. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
  4. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
  5. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 12149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cambpbell, John Y. & Jackson, Howell Edmunds & Madrian, Brigitte & Tufano, Peter, 2010. "The Regulation of Consumer Financial Products: An Introductory Essay with Four Case Studies," Scholarly Articles 4450128, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Amir Sufi, 2009. "Bank Lines of Credit in Corporate Finance: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1057-1088, March.
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