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Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures

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Author Info
Albert J. Menkveld
Asani Sarkar
Michel van der Wel
Abstract

Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement’s effect on risk-free rates—about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since their own-account trade profitability correlates with access to customer flow, controlling for volatility, competition, and the macro “surprise.”

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 307.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:307

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Keywords: Futures Treasury bonds Intermediation (Finance) Macroeconomics Financial markets Stock - Prices

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  6. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Marcus, Alan J. & Wilhelm, William J., 1992. "What's special about the specialist?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-86, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sanford J. Grossman, . "An Economic Analysis of Dual Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 33-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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