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Do high interest rates stem capital outflows?

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

Conventional wisdom posits that high interest rates stem capital flight and currency depreciation. Some have argued, however that the standard prescription exacerbates the problems. This paper set out a framework for evaluating the conditions under which an increase in domestic interest rates fails to reverse capital outflow. The possibility that high domestic interest rates might have unorthodox effects arises through a risk premium: If raising interest rates increases the possibility associated with default, the result can be a worsening of the country's capital account position.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/1999-002
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1999-002.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Publication status: Published in Economic Letters, v. 67, no. 2, May 2000, pp. 187-92
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-002

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Keywords: Capital movements ; Interest rates;

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Bruno, Michael & Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-74, May.
  4. Paul R. Krugman, 1989. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chan, Tze-Haw, 2007. "The real interest rate differential: international evidence based on nonlinear unit root tests," MPRA Paper 7300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Alex Luiz Ferreira & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Does the Real Interest Parity Hypothesis Hold? Evidence for Developed and Emerging Markets," Studies in Economics 0301, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.
  4. Rosaria Rita canale & Ugo Marani, 2012. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Euro-area: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," Department of Economics University of Siena 659, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  5. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July.

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