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Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences

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  • Jaroslav Borovicka

Abstract

I study the long-run behavior of a two-agent economy where agents differ in their beliefs and are endowed with homothetic recursive preferences of the Duffie-Epstein-Zin type. When preferences are separable, the economy is dominated in the long run by the agent whose beliefs are relatively more precise, a result consistent with the market selection hypothesis. However, recursive preference specifications lead to equilibria in which both agents survive, or to ones where either agent can dominate the economy with a strictly positive probability. In this respect, the market selection hypothesis is not robust to deviations from separability. I derive analytical conditions for the existence of nondegenerate long-run equilibria, and show that these equilibria exist for plausible parameterizations when risk aversion is larger than the inverse of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, providing a justification for models that combine belief heterogeneity and recursive preferences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-2011-06.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2011-06

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Keywords: Consumption (Economics);

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  1. Larry G. Epstein & JianJun Miao, 2001. "A Two-Person Dynamic Equilibrium under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 478, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Finance 0312001, EconWPA.
  3. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2010. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 16035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does it Work?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2648, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2008.
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