The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals' returns

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The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals' returns

Author Info

Jane Ihrig
David Prior

Abstract

This paper examines if the type of exchange rate used or size of the movement in the exchange rate matters in estimating exchange-rate exposure of U.S. nonfinancial multinationals. We find that switching from a broad trade-weighted exchange rate to a 2-digit SIC industry exchange rate increases the number of significantly exposed firms in a simple Jorion (1990) regression by 60 percent. Then separating crisis from non-crisis months we find additional evidence of exposure. Although the value of exposure does not change with the size of the exchange rate movement, we find some firms have significant exposure only in crisis periods while others have significant exposure only during normal fluctuations in exchange rates. All told, we find about 1 in 4 firms' returns is significantly affected by movement in the exchange rate between 1995 and 1999.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 782.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:782

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NEP-ALL-2003-11-30 (All new papers)
NEP-IFN-2003-11-30 (International Finance)
NEP-RMG-2003-11-30 (Risk Management)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda, 1995. "Investment, Pass-Through and Exchange-Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," Working Papers 95-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1995. "Investment, Pass-Through and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1996. "Investment, pass-through, and exchange rates: a cross-country comparison," Staff Reports 14, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53. [Downloadable!]
Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Exchange-rate exposure of multinationals: focusing on exchange-rate issues," International Finance Discussion Papers 709, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kiymaz, Halil, 2003. "Estimation of foreign exchange exposure: an emerging market application," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 71-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Cai, Fang & Warnock, Francis E., 2005. "International diversification at home and abroad," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
Fang Cai & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "International Diversification at Home and Abroad," NBER Working Papers 12220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fang Cai & Francis E. Warnock, 2004. "International diversification at home and abroad," International Finance Discussion Papers 793, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

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