Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Bubbles or noise? Reconciling the results of broad-dividend variance-bounds tests

Contents:

Author Info

  • Garrett H. TeSelle

Abstract

Recent research indicates that results of variance-bounds tests of stock price volatility may depend on the definition of cash flows deemed relevant to shareholders: Tests using regular (or "narrow") dividends repeatedly have suggested that stock prices fluctuate more than can be explained by a simple present value hypothesis, while some tests using "broad dividends" (i.e., narrow dividends plus proceeds from share liquidations) do not detect such excess price volatility. Researchers disagree as to the cause and meaning of these differences. This paper derives and analyzes the broad-dividend version of the present value hypothesis to show that under common assumptions, these differences in variance-bounds tests have only two possible causes: Either narrow-dividend tests have rejected the present value hypothesis because of bubbles (either rational bubbles, or "empirical" bubbles as might be effected by dividend-smoothing or dividend-nonpayment); or broad-dividend tests simply have lacked power to detect mispricing. Using simulation and results from previous studies, this paper demonstrates that the second possible cause -- the lack of power in broad-dividend tests -- most likely explains the differences between narrow- and broad-dividend variance-bounds tests.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1998/199842/199842abs.html
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1998/199842/199842pap.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-42.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-42

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html

Related research

Keywords: Stock - Prices;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gilles, Christian & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1991. "Econometric Aspects of the Variance-Bounds Tests: A Survey," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 753-91.
  2. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pontiff, Jeffrey, 1997. "Excess Volatility and Closed-End Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 155-69, March.
  5. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  6. John B. Shoven, 1987. "The Tax Consequences of Share Repurchases and Other Non-Dividend Cash Payments to Equity Owners," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 1, pages 29-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  9. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
  11. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-60, September.
  13. Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.