Pricing kernels, inflation, and the term structure of interest rates

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Pricing kernels, inflation, and the term structure of interest rates

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Ben R. Craig
Joseph G. Haubrich

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Joseph Haubrich

Abstract

We estimate a discrete-time multivariate pricing kernel for the term structure of interest rates, using both yields and inflation rates. This gives a separate estimate of the real kernel and the nominal kernel, taking into account a relatively sophisticated dynamical structure and mutual interaction between the real and nominal side of the economy. Along with obtaining an estimate of the real term structure, we use the estimates to obtain a new perspective on how real and nominal influences interact to produce the observed term structure.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0308.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0308

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-10-28 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2003-10-28 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2003-10-28 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. " The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Labadie, Pamela, 1994. "The term structure of interest rates over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 671-697. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Pamela Labadie, 1991. "The term structure of interest rates over the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 159, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," Working Papers 94-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Y. Campbell, 1987. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," NBER Working Papers 1509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pennacchi, George G, 1991. "Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 53-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kreps, David M., 1981. "Arbitrage and equilibrium in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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