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Avaliação dos impactos macro-econômicos e de bem-estar da reforma tributária no Brasil


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  • Pereira, Ricardo A. de Castro
  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti


Este artigo avalia o impacto sobre a economia brasileira de uma reforma trib-utária que reduza distorções e cumulatividade, utilizando para tal experimento aatual proposta do Ministério da Fazenda. Utiliza-se um modelo recursivo dinâmicopadrão calibrado de forma a se aproximar o máximo possível da economia brasileirahoje. A simulações são implementadas ao se introduzir parâmetros correspon-dentes à reforma tributária: desoneração da folha de pagamentos, redução dacumulatividade com introdução do IVA-F e a desoneração dos investimentos coma redução do prazo de restituição de créditos de ICMS. Estima-se que a reformatributária proposta provocaria um aumento de 1,5 pontos percentuais na taxa decrescimento do produto nos oito anos seguintes a sua implementação e um ganhode longo prazo de 16%. O impacto sobre o nível de investimento seria muito ex-pressivo, 40% no mesmo período, de modo que a taxa de investimento saltaria dosatuais 20% para quase 24%. Os ganhos de consumo e bem-estar também foramestimados como bastante signi cativos.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 709.

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Date of creation: 21 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:709

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  1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1992. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  3. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Nascimento, Leandro Gonçalves do, 2005. "Welfare and Growth Effects of Alternative Fiscal Rules for Infrastructure Investment in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 604, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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Cited by:
  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2013. "Gender equality and economic growth in Brazil : a long-run analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6348, The World Bank.


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