Geoengineering and Abatement: A “flat” Relationship under Uncertainty
AbstractThe potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its effectiveness, costs, and impacts, all of which are highly uncertain. This has led to a polarizing debate. This paper evaluates the role of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the optimal abatement path, focusing on the uncertainty about the effectiveness of SRM and the interaction with uncertain climate change response. Using standard economic models of dynamic decision theory under uncertainty, we show that abatement is decreasing in the probability of success of SRM, but that this relation is concave and thus that significant abatement reductions are optimal only if SRM is very likely to be effective. The results are confirmed even when considering positive correlation structures between the effectiveness of geoengineering and the magnitude of climate change. Using a stochastic version of an Integrated Assessment Model, the results are found to be robust for a wide range of parameters specification.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2013.31.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Geoengineering; Mitigation; Climate Policy; Uncertainty;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-05-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-05-05 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-05-05 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johan Eyckmans & Jan Cornillie, 2000. "Efficiency and Equity of the EU Burden Sharing Agreement," Energy, Transport and Environment Working Papers Series, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische StudiÃ«n, Energy, Transport and Environment ete0002, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische StudiÃ«n, Energy, Transport and Environment, revised Jun 2002.
- Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007.
"Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization,"
Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
2007.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Uncertain R&D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages S18-S26.
- Victor Brovkin & Vladimir Petoukhov & Martin Claussen & Eva Bauer & David Archer & Carlo Jaeger, 2009. "Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 243-259, February.
- Enrica De Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2009.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke & David Keith, 2012. "A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 649-668, February.
- Trivedi, Pravin K. & Zimmer, David M., 2007. "Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-111, April.
- Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton & RamÃ³n Bueno, 2013. "Epsteinâ€“Zin Utility in DICE: Is Risk Aversion Irrelevant to Climate Policy?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 73-84, September.
- Juan Moreno-Cruz & David Keith, 2013. "Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 431-444, December.
- Olivier Sterck, 2011.
"Geoengineering as an alternative to mitigation: specification and dynamic implications,"
- Olivier STERCK, 2011. "Geoengineering as an alternative to mitigation: specification and dynamic implications," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2011035, UniversitÃ© catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
- Adam Millard-Ball, 2012. "The Tuvalu Syndrome," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1047-1066, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.