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FBST for Unit Root Problems

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  • Márcio Alves Diniz
  • C.A.B.Pereira
  • J.M.Stern
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    Abstract

    This paper presents the Full Bayesian Significance Test for unit roots in auto-regressive time series, and compares it to other approaches on a benchmark of 14 econometric series.

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    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 08_11.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:08_11

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    Related research

    Keywords: ARMA models; e-values; FBST; Unit roots;

    References

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    1. Stern, J. M. & Zacks, S., 2002. "Testing the independence of Poisson variates under the Holgate bivariate distribution: the power of a new evidence test," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 313-320, December.
    2. Koop, Gary & Steel, Mark F J, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends: A Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 365-70, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988. "Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    6. Leamer, Edward E, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends: Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 371-73, Oct.-Dec..
    7. Conigliani, Caterina & Spezzaferri, Fulvio, 2007. "A Robust Bayesian Approach For Unit Root Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 440-463, June.
    8. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    9. Poirier, Dale J, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends: A Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 381-86, Oct.-Dec..
    10. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, September.
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