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The Euro Area's Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based Interpretation

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  • Roberta Cardani
  • Olga Croitorov
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Philipp Pfeiffer
  • Marco Ratto
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp contraction of economic activity in the euro area (and worldwide). Its anatomy differs strongly from other crises in recent history. We analyse the short-term economic effects of the COVID-19 shock through the lens of an estimated DSGE model. We augment the canonical DSGE set-up with “forced savings" (lockdowns, social distancing), labour hoarding (short-time work) and liquidity-constrained firms to capture salient demand and supply effects of the COVID shock and the containment and stabilisation policies. Shock decompositions with the estimated model show the dominant role of “lockdown shocks" (“forced savings", labour hoarding) in explaining the quarterly pattern of real GDP growth in 2020, complemented by a negative contribution from foreign and investment demand particularly in 2020q2 and a negative impact of persistently higher (precautionary) savings. The initial inflation response has been modest compared to the severity of the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Cardani & Olga Croitorov & Massimo Giovannini & Philipp Pfeiffer & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "The Euro Area's Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based Interpretation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 153, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:153
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Filippo Ferroni & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Usual Shocks in our Usual Models," Working Paper Series WP 2022-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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