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Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model

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Listed:
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo
  • Mathias Trabandt

Abstract

This paper documents the behavior of key macro aggregates in the wake of the Covid epidemic. We show that a unique feature of the Covid recession is that the peak-to-trough decline is roughly the same for consumption, investment, and output. In contrast to the 2008 recession, there was only a short-lived rise in financial stress that quickly subsided. Finally, there was mild deflation between the peak and the trough of the Covid recession. We argue that a New Keynesian model that explicitly incorporates epidemic dynamics captures these qualitative features of the Covid recession. A key feature of the model is that Covid acts like a negative shock to the demand for consumption and the supply of labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2020. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 27430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27430
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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