International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil
AbstractThis paper analyzes the relation between international liquidity and growth for Brazil in 1966-2000. Defining the former as the ratio of foreign reserves to foreign (interest-bearing) debt, the objective is to build a model connecting growth with international liquidity, and then check whether the results from such a model hold up in practice. The model builds upon Thirlwall's (1979) law and uses some basic accounting identities to specify a liquidity constraint on small open economies. The main implication of such a model is that, similar to what happens with liquidity constrained agents in closed economies, small open economies tend to adjust their current account, especially their trade balance, to the availability of external finance. Thus, in face of fluctuations in international liquidity, one should expect fluctuations in growth after a time lag. This is exactly what the paper verifies for Brazil in 1966-2000, that is, changes in Brazil's international liquidity tends to lead changes in its growth rate. Overall, inertia and international liquidity explains approximately 40% of the variation in Brazil's growth rate in 1966-2000.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School in its series SCEPA Working Papers with number 2001-04.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
international liquidity; liquidity constraint; growth; Brazil;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O20 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-09-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2002-09-21 (Development)
- NEP-LAM-2002-09-21 (Central & South America)
- NEP-RMG-2002-09-21 (Risk Management)
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- Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
- Ricardo Adrogué & Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2010.
"Brazil's long-term growth performance: trying to explain the puzzle,"
Journal of Economic Studies,
Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 356-376, September.
- Ricardo AdroguÃ© & Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2006. "Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 06/282, International Monetary Fund.
- Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
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