The Migration of Fear: An Analysis of Migration Choices of Syrian Refugees

The current literature on forced migration offers only limited knowledge of how each of the different consequences of war, such as damage to property and casualties to family members, and the services provided to the refugees in the host country, affect the difficult choices that refugees subsequently must make as to when and where to migrate once again. This paper contributes to the literature on forced migration by studying the effects of armed violence in the country that has given rise to the largest number of refugees in the world in the last decade, namely Syria, on those various migration-related decisions. The study is based on all three waves (2013, 2014 and 2015) of a survey conducted of Syrian refugees in Turkey, the country with the largest number of Syrian refugees. The study first examines the various impacts of war (property damage, casualties, sleeping disorders) on the refugees by gender, age, education, income and other characteristics. More importantly, it then investigates the consequences of these different impacts of war as well as the duration of the refugee’s stay in Turkey, the quality of services provided to these refugees and the individual characteristics of the refugees on various alternative choices about the timing and destination of future migration by refugees using a logit model. The results show that (1) the longer and greater the level of violence in the country of origin, and the longer the time spent outside of Syria, the lower the likelihood of the choice to return to the country of origin; (2). the longer the time the refugee has spent in Turkey, the higher is the probability of permanent settlement in another European country; and (3) the more and higher quality of services provided to the refugees, the more likely they are to remain in Turkey While females are more likely to want to return to Syria, men and especially those with greater education, higher income and personal networks are more likely to want to relocate somewhere in Europe or elsewhere.