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Civil conflict and displacement Village-level determinants of forced migration in Aceh

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  • Mathias Czaika
  • Krisztina Kis-Katos

    () (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique dataset from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5200 Acehnese villages and relates village level population change to conflict variables, geographic patterns and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. We identify the following factors as the main determinants of the Aceh migration pattern in this period: First, conflict clashes induced large rearrangements of the population between villages in highly affected districts, as well as strong village emigration from the geographically remote regions in Central Aceh towards the less conflict-affected coastal industrial areas. Besides conflict factors, an (ongoing) rural-urban migration process, driven by socio-economic factors has taken place during the conflict period. Second, there is also evidence that security considerations, such as the presence of police in a village or neighborhood, were either emigration-reducing or immigration-inducing. Third, although the presence of ethnic-Javanese has not been a primary cause of conflict incidence, their intimidation by the rebel movement has led to a significant outflow, primarily from conflict-affected villages in Central Aceh. These results reveal that, beside a conflict-induced fear of violence, population movements in Aceh have also been an outcome of traditional migration determinants.

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File URL: http://www.vwl.uni-freiburg.de/iwipol/REPEC/fre/wpaper/DP4_czaika-kiskatos_Aceh.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 4.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision: Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:fre:wpaper:4

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  1. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
  2. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-65, January.
  3. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
  4. Faini, Riccardo, 1996. "Increasing returns, migrations and convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-136, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2012. "Movers or Stayers? Understanding the Drivers of IDP Camp Decongestion during Post-Conflict Recovery in Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1197, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2010. "Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 38, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 132, Households in Conflict Network.
  5. Patricia Justino, 2009. "The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses," Research Working Papers 12, MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict.

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