Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique data–set from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5200 Acehnese villages and relates village level population change to conflict variables and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. The study finds that the negative impact of conflict incidence on village population stock is mainly driven by reductions in inflow for slightly affected (inflow) villages, and by an outflow push for severely affected (outflow) villages. After controlling for conflict variables, socioeconomic factors remain significant and robust determinants for explaining internal displacements. Villages that are more dependent on agricultural production experience larger population outflows, and smaller population inflows, which reflects a clear rural–urban migration pattern. The presence of small–scale manufacturing industries helps to retain village population. These results emphasize that forced migration cannot be considered as only a result of a unidimensional fear of violence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 32.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.hicn.org
Displacement; civil conflict; Aceh;
Other versions of this item:
- Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2008. "Civil conflict and displacement Village-level determinants of forced migration in Aceh," Discussion Paper Series 4, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Apr 2008.
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-MIG-2007-07-13 (Economics of Human Migration)
- NEP-SEA-2007-07-13 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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