Applications for Asylum in the Developed World: Modelling Asylum Claims by Origin and Destination

This paper outlines trends in asylum applications to 38 industrialized countries since 1989. Applications to Australia of onshore arrivals are just two percent of the total. While Australian applications are subject to many of the same influences, the source country composition is distinct and the time profile is somewhat different from that of the other countries. We also provide a survey of existing quantitative research on refugee displacement and asylum applications. In the light of existing studies we specify and estimate a model to explain asylum applications in 19 major destination countries from 48 source countries over the period from 1997 to 2012. Finally, we develop a quantitative index of asylum policies, which covers 15 components of asylum policy for 1997 to 2012. This shows that on average policies became tougher, especially between 2000 and 2006. Australian policy shifted more than average. It turned sharply restrictive in 2001 followed by a distinct easing from 2008 that was reversed after 2012.