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A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

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  • van Bekkum, S.
  • Pennings, H.P.G.
  • Smit, J.T.J.

Abstract

This paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have conditional or option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. Although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has a fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, diversification only slightly reduces portfolio risk. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification proves more effective than conventional tools predict.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bekkum, S. & Pennings, H.P.G. & Smit, J.T.J., 2009. "A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-019-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:15410
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier G. Castro & Edison A. Tito & Luiz E. Brandão, 2021. "Optimization of a Portfolio of Investment Projects: A Real Options Approach Using the Omega Measure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Giovanna Lo Nigro & Azzurra Morreale & Lorenzo Abbate, 2016. "An Open Innovation Decision Support System to Select a Biopharmaceutical R&D Portfolio," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 392-406, September.
    3. Raquel J. Fonseca & Luísa Cunha, 2023. "Real options in health insurance decisions: the Portuguese ADSE system," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Jorge Tarifa-Fernández & Ana María Sánchez-Pérez & Salvador Cruz-Rambaud, 2019. "Internet of Things and Their Coming Perspectives: A Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Wang, Juite & Yang, Chung-Yu, 2012. "Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 823-831.
    6. Hernandez-Perdomo, Elvis A. & Mun, Johnathan & Rocco S., Claudio M., 2017. "Active management in state-owned energy companies: Integrating a real options approach into multicriteria analysis to make companies sustainable," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 487-502.
    7. Herbert Dawid & Reinhold Decker & Thomas Hermann & Hermann Jahnke & Wilhelm Klat & Rolf König & Christian Stummer, 2017. "Management science in the era of smart consumer products: challenges and research perspectives," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 25(1), pages 203-230, March.
    8. Fernandes, Glaucia & Perobelli, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo T., 2016. "A model for valuing new technologies under a pull incentives environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-493.
    9. Jonathan Linton & Nicholas Vonortas, 2015. "From Research Project to Research Portfolio: Meeting Scale and Complexity," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 38-43.
    10. Pennings, H.P.G., 2010. "Does Contract Complexity Limit Opportunities? Vertical Organization and Flexibility," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management EIA-2010-044-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    11. Gordon Briest & Elmar Lukas & Sascha H. Mölls & Timo Willershausen, 2020. "Innovation speed under uncertainty and competition," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1517-1527, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio analysis; real options; research & development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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