IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/24647.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating structural bond pricing models via simulated maximum likelihood

Author

Listed:
  • Bruche, Max

Abstract

This paper describes how structural bond pricing models can be estimated using a Simulated Maximum Likelihood procedure developed by Durbin and Koopman (1997). The approach has the advantage that price dated on any traded claim (such as bonds, equity, and credit default swaps), as well as information about the balance sheet (e.g. accounting data) can be used in the estimation, improving efficiency. Monte Carlo evidence as well as a small application to real data indicates that this approach is superior to both traditional estimation methods and recently proposed versions of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Ericsson, Reneby 2002)

Suggested Citation

  • Bruche, Max, 2005. "Estimating structural bond pricing models via simulated maximum likelihood," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24647, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24647
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24647/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    3. Jan Ericsson & Joel Reneby, 1998. "A framework for valuing corporate securities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3-4), pages 143-163.
    4. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    5. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
    7. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    8. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 541-552, November.
    9. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    11. Jan Ericsson & Joel Reneby, 2005. "Estimating Structural Bond Pricing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 707-735, March.
    12. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. "Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-895, September.
    13. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167, April.
    14. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    15. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    16. Harry Mamaysky, 2002. "A Model For Pricing Stocks and Bonds," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm279, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jun 2002.
    17. Harry Mamaysky, 2002. "A Model for Pricing Stocks and Bonds with Default Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm286, Yale School of Management.
    18. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
    19. Anderson, Ronald & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2000. "A comparative study of structural models of corporate bond yields: An exploratory investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 255-269, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyriakos Georgiou & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probability of Default modelling with L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and applications in credit risk under the IFRS 9," Papers 2309.12384, arXiv.org.
    2. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
    3. Han-Hsing Lee & Ren-Raw Chen & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Empirical Studies of Structural Credit Risk Models and the Application in Default Prediction: Review and New Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 50, pages 1845-1901, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2012. "Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1639-1652.
    5. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models II: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.
    7. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Forte, Santiago, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Max Bruche, 2006. "Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices," Working Papers wp2006_0610, CEMFI.
    2. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2012. "Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1639-1652.
    3. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "The role of asset payouts in the estimation of default barriers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.
    5. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models II: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.
    6. Zhou, Xinghua & Reesor, R. Mark, 2015. "Misrepresentation and capital structure: Quantifying the impact on corporate debt value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    7. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    9. Yalin Gündüz & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2014. "Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 39-78, April.
    10. Alina Sima (Grigore) & Alin Sima, 2011. "Distance to Default Estimates for Romanian Listed Companies," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(2), pages 091-106, December.
    11. Reneby, Joel & Ericsson, Jan, 2001. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 445, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 07 Jan 2003.
    12. Li, Ka Leung & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2008. "Structural models of corporate bond pricing with maximum likelihood estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 751-777, September.
    13. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    14. Dionne, Georges & Laajimi, Sadok, 2012. "On the determinants of the implied default barrier," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 395-408.
    15. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    19. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi & Hao Zhou, 2020. "Specification Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models [Corporate bond valuation and hedging with stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 45-98.
    20. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    21. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Forte, Santiago, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.