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Estimating Structural Models Of Corporate Bond Prices

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  • Max Bruche

    ()
    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

One of the strengths of structural models (or firm-value based models) of credit (e.g. Merton, 1974) as opposed to reduced-form models (e.g. Jarrow and Turnbull, 1995) is that they directly link the price of equity to default probabilities, and hence to the price of corporate bonds (and credit derivatives). Yet when these models are estimated on actual data, the existence of data other than equity prices is typically ignored. This paper describes how all available price data (equity prices, bond prices, possibly credit derivative prices) can be used in estimation, and illustrates that using e.g. bond price data in addition to equity price data greatly improves estimates. In this context, the issue of possibly noisy data and/or model error is also discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2006_0610.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2006_0610

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  1. Gordon Gemmill, 2002. "Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds," Working Papers wp02-08, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Fisher, Lawrence, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 625-27, July.
  3. Jan Ericsson, 2005. "Estimating Structural Bond Pricing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 707-735, March.
  4. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
  5. Reneby, Joel & Ericsson, Jan, 2001. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 445, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2002.
  6. Schaefer, Stephen M. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2008. "Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-19, October.
  7. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  9. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November.
  10. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  11. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
  12. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  13. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  14. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
  15. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. " Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-95, September.
  16. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
  17. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  18. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2006. "Flat Tax Reforms in the US: A Boon for the Income Poor," CEPR Discussion Papers 5812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Alina Sima (Grigore) & Alin Sima, 2011. "Distance to Default Estimates for Romanian Listed Companies," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(2), pages 091-106, December.
  3. Joan Llull, 2008. "The Impact Of Immigration On Productivity," Working Papers wp2008_0802, CEMFI.
  4. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects Of Basel Ii," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
  5. Sukhomlin, Nikolay & Santana Jiménez, Lisette Josefina, 2010. "Problema de calibración de mercado y estructura implícita del modelo de bonos de Black-Cox = Market Calibration Problem and the Implied Structure of the Black-Cox Bond Model," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 10(1), pages 73-98, December.

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