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Information network modeling for U.S. banking systemic risk

Author

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  • Nicola, Giancarlo
  • Cerchiello, Paola
  • Aste, Tomaso

Abstract

In this work we investigate whether information theory measures like mutual information and transfer entropy, extracted from a bank network, Granger cause financial stress indexes like LIBOR-OIS (London Interbank Offered Rate-Overnight Index Swap) spread, STLFSI (St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index) and USD/CHF (USA Dollar/Swiss Franc) exchange rate. The information theory measures are extracted from a Gaussian Graphical Model constructed from daily stock time series of the top 74 listed US banks. The graphical model is calculated with a recently developed algorithm (LoGo) which provides very fast inference model that allows us to update the graphical model each market day. We therefore can generate daily time series of mutual information and transfer entropy for each bank of the network. The Granger causality between the bank related measures and the financial stress indexes is investigated with both standard Granger-causality and Partial Granger-causality conditioned on control measures representative of the general economy conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola, Giancarlo & Cerchiello, Paola & Aste, Tomaso, 2020. "Information network modeling for U.S. banking systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107563, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:107563
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    3. Cameron Cornell & Lewis Mitchell & Matthew Roughan, 2023. "Vector Autoregression in Cryptocurrency Markets: Unraveling Complex Causal Networks," Papers 2308.15769, arXiv.org.
    4. Isobel Seabrook & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "An Information Filtering approach to stress testing: an application to FTSE markets," Papers 2106.08778, arXiv.org.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stress; granger causality; graphical models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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