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Information theoretic causality detection between financial and sentiment data

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  • Scaramozzino, Roberta
  • Cerchiello, Paola
  • Aste, Tomaso

Abstract

The interaction between the flow of sentiment expressed on blogs and media and the dynamics of the stock market prices are analyzed through an information-theoretic measure, the transfer entropy, to quantify causality relations. We analyzed daily stock price and daily social media sentiment for the top 50 companies in the Standard & Poor (S&P) index during the period from November 2018 to November 2020. We also analyzed news mentioning these companies during the same period. We found that there is a causal flux of information that links those companies. The largest fraction of significant causal links is between prices and between sentiments, but there is also significant causal information which goes both ways from sentiment to prices and from prices to sentiment. We observe that the strongest causal signal between sentiment and prices is associated with the Tech sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Scaramozzino, Roberta & Cerchiello, Paola & Aste, Tomaso, 2021. "Information theoretic causality detection between financial and sentiment data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110903, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:110903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Caferra, Rocco, 2022. "Sentiment spillover and price dynamics: Information flow in the cryptocurrency and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
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    3. Agosto, Arianna & Cerchiello, Paola & Pagnottoni, Paolo, 2022. "Sentiment, Google queries and explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    information theory; textual analysis; transfer entropy; financial news; causality; time series; ES/K002309/1; EP/P031730/1; H2020-ICT-2018-2 825215;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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