Graphical network models for international financial flows
AbstractThe late-2000s financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of countries, where cross-border financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. Financial network models, that take into account the complex interrelationships between countries, seem to be an appropriate tool in this context. In this paper we propose to enrich the topological perspective of network models with a more structured statistical framework, that of graphical Gaussian models, which can be employed to accurately estimate the adjacency matrix, the main input for the estimation of the interconnections between different countries. We consider different types of graphical models: besides classical ones, we introduce Bayesian graphical models, that can take model uncertainty into account, and dynamic Bayesian graphical models, that provide a convenient framework to model temporal cross-border data, decomposing the model into autoregressive and contemporaneous networks. The paper shows how the application of the proposed models to the Bank of International Settlements locational banking statistics allows the identification of four distinct groups of countries, that can be considered central in systemic risk contagion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management in its series DEM Working Papers Series with number 052.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Financial network models; Graphical models; Bayesian model selection;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2013-10-25 (Econometrics)
- NEP-IFN-2013-10-25 (International Finance)
- NEP-NET-2013-10-25 (Network Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2013-10-25 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Network Structure of the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 7.
- Garratt, Rodney & Mahadeva, Lavan & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2011. "Mapping systemic risk in the international banking network," Bank of England working papers 413, Bank of England.
- Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Paolo Giudici, 2014.
"Hierarchical Graphical Models, With Application To Systemic Risk,"
DEM Working Papers Series
063, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
- Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2012. "Bayesian Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Processes," Working Papers 2012:36, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Paolo Giudici, 2013. "Hierarchical Graphical Models, With Application to Systemic Risk," Working Papers 2014:01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010.
"Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk In Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks,"
- Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010. "Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk in Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 683, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- H. Huizinga & Ga�tan Nicod�me, 2001.
"Are international deposits tax-driven?,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
152, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Kubelec, Chris & Sa, Filipa, 2010. "The geographical composition of national external balance sheets: 1980-2005," Bank of England working papers 384, Bank of England.
- Jackson, Matthew O. & Watts, Alison, 2002.
"The Evolution of Social and Economic Networks,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 265-295, October.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Christian Brownlees, 2013.
"Nets: Network Estimation for Time Series,"
723, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
- Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006.
"The topology of interbank payment flows,"
243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
- Tanya Araújo & R. Vilela Mendes, 2001. "Function and form in networks of interacting agents," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/03, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Co-Pierre Georg & Jenny Poschmann, 2010. "Systemic risk in a network model of interbank markets with central bank activity," Jena Economic Research Papers 2010-033, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2013. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Working Paper Series 1583, European Central Bank.
- Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alice Albonico).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.