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Structural changes in cross-border liabilities: A multidimensional approach

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  • Araújo, Tanya
  • Spelta, Alessandro
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    Abstract

    We study the international interbank market through a geometric analysis of empirical data. The geometric analysis of the time series of cross-country liabilities shows that the systematic information of the interbank international market is contained in a space of small dimension. Geometric spaces of financial relations across countries are developed, for which the space volume, multivariate skewness and multivariate kurtosis are computed. The behavior of these coefficients reveals an important modification acting in the financial linkages since 1997 and allows us to relate the shape of the geometric space that emerges in recent years to the globally turbulent period that has characterized financial systems since the late 1990s. Here we show that, besides a persistent decrease in the volume of the geometric space since 1997, the observation of a generalized increase in the values of the multivariate skewness and kurtosis sheds some light on the behavior of cross-border interdependencies during periods of financial crises. This was found to occur in such a systematic fashion, that these coefficients may be used as a proxy for systemic risk.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 394 (2014)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 277-287

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:394:y:2014:i:c:p:277-287

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Geometric spaces; Interbank market; Multidimensional scaling; Multivariate skewness; Multivariate kurtosis; Systemic risk;

    References

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    1. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2011. "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," Working Papers 2011_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Spelta, Alessandro & Araújo, Tanya, 2012. "The topology of cross-border exposures: Beyond the minimal spanning tree approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5572-5583.
    3. Vilela Mendes, R. & Araújo, Tanya & Louçã, Francisco, 2003. "Reconstructing an economic space from a market metric," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 635-650.
    4. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
    5. Rosario N. Mantegna, 1998. "Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/9802256, arXiv.org.
    6. Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Staff Reports 243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. de Masi, G. & Iori, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2006. "A fitness model for the Italian interbank money market," Working Papers 06/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
    8. Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Ikeda, Yuichi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Souma, Wataru, 2009. "Structure and Temporal Change of the Credit Network between Banks and Large Firms in Japan," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(7), pages 1-18.
    9. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    10. Zhao, Yi & Konishi, Sadanori, 1997. "Limit distributions of multivariate kurtosis and moments under Watson rotational symmetric distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 291-299, March.
    11. Yoshi Fujiwara & Hideaki Aoyama & Yuichi Ikeda & Hiroshi Iyetomi & Wataru Souma, 2009. "Structure and temporal change of the credit network between banks and large firms in Japan," Papers 0901.2377, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
    12. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2006. "Tracking international bank flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    13. Araújo, Tanya & Dias, João & Eleutério, Samuel & Louçã, Francisco, 2013. "A measure of multivariate kurtosis for the identification of the dynamics of a N-dimensional market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3708-3714.
    14. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
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