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A Network Model of Super-systemic Crises

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  • Prasanna Gai
  • Sujit Kapadia

Abstract

Although the financial systems of advanced countries have weathered numerous shocks in recent years, the events triggered by the sub-prime crisis of August 2007 have been “super-systemic” in scope, enveloping financial institutions across the major economies as well as far away Iceland and New Zealand. In this paper, we apply network techniques to develop a framework for analyzing financial contagion that isolate the probability of contagion from its potential spread. Our results suggest that complex financial systems may be robust-yet-fragile in nature. Under plausible assumptions, the greater connectivity implied by new financial instruments (e.g., credit derivatives) reduces the likelihood of contagion. But the impact on the financial system, in the event of problems, can be on a significantly larger scale than before.

Suggested Citation

  • Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, 2009. "A Network Model of Super-systemic Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 542, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:542
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Giudici & A. Spelta, 2016. "Graphical Network Models for International Financial Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 128-138, January.
    2. Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2010. "Resilience of the Interbank Network to Shocks and Optimal Bail-Out Strategy: Advantages of "Tiered" Banking Systems," Vienna Economics Papers 1007, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    3. Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2010. "Resilience of the Interbank Network to Shocks and Optimal Bail-Out Strategy: Advantages of "Tiered" Banking Systems," Vienna Economics Papers 1007, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    4. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2010. "Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 2010/107, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Co-Pierre Georg & Jenny Poschmann, 2010. "Systemic risk in a network model of interbank markets with central bank activity," Jena Economics Research Papers 2010-033, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

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