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Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States

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Author Info
d’Artis Kancs
Julda Kielyte

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Abstract

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and analyses socio-economic impacts of migration in the context of the EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic consequences for home and host countries? In order to answer these questions we draw on previous literature as well as on our empirical work. In the empirical analysis we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe. In particular, we estimate the future migration pressure, based on economic conditions in the Baltic States and Western Europe. Our empirical results suggest that depending on assumptions 3-5 percent of home countries working population might emigrate after opening labour markets in the old EU member states.

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Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI) in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2002_04.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2002_04

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Related research
Keywords: International labour migration; EU integration; panel data; econometric model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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  1. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alastair R. Hall & Glenn D. Rudebusch & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  6. Zhao, L. C. & Krishnaiah, P. R. & Bai, Z. D., 1986. "On detection of the number of signals in presence of white noise," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. D’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 2(1), pages 32-63, April. [Downloadable!]
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