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Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States

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Author Info

  • d’Artis Kancs
  • Julda Kielyte

Abstract

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and analyses socio-economic impacts of migration in the context of the EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic consequences for home and host countries? In order to answer these questions we draw on previous literature as well as on our empirical work. In the empirical analysis we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe. In particular, we estimate the future migration pressure, based on economic conditions in the Baltic States and Western Europe. Our empirical results suggest that depending on assumptions 3-5 percent of home countries working population might emigrate after opening labour markets in the old EU member states.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2002_04.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2002_04

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Related research

Keywords: International labour migration; EU integration; panel data; econometric model;

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References

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  1. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-30, May.
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  9. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
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Cited by:
  1. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. D’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2(1), pages 32-63, April.
  3. Kancs, d'Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 14, November.
  4. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_36, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

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