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The Role of Firm Size in Controlling Output Volatility during the Asian Financial Crisis

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Hung-ju Chen; Hsiao-tang Hsu

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Abstract

This study sets out to develop a simplified risk premium model to explain output volatility within the economies of Asia in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. Firms are allowed to borrow from both domestic and foreign banks, with the firms� debts being loosely constrained (at high levels) prior to the crisis (lending boom) but becoming tightly constrained (at low levels) on the outbreak of the crisis (lending bust). The lending rate is a function of the debt-capital ratio; thus if firms have only limited access to the credit market, then they will accumulate less capital and become small firms. Given their lower collateral, small firms face higher risk premiums which will ultimately lead to a much greater reduction in output when a credit crunch suddenly hits. Our model predicts that small firm size will accelerate unanticipated shocks; therefore, output volatility will be greater in countries with small firms than in those with large firms

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 11.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:11

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Related research
Keywords: Asian financial crisis; Firm size; Credit constraints; Risk premiums;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  6. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Country Risk, Incomplete Information and Taxes on International Borrowing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 147-61, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1999. "Emerging Markets Crisis - An Asset Markets Perspective," IMF Working Papers 99/129, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. Shankha Chakraborty & Amartya Lahiri, 2003. "Costly Intermediation and the Poverty of Nations," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-1, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jan 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Leonardo Auernheimer, 2000. "International Debt and the Price of Domestic Assets," IMF Working Papers 00/177, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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